Is There a “Housing Bubble” in Canada?

Diane Buchanan • June 27, 2016

Since at least 2008, there have been repeated bursts of commentary that there is a housing bubble in Canada. Those comments have generally assumed that rapid growth in house prices (or a rising ratio of house prices versus incomes or of house prices versus rents) is sufficient evidence of a bubble. To the contrary, these supposedly strong indicators are not definitive proof. They may actually represent healthy outcomes within existing conditions.

Proof of a bubble requires two findings:

  1. There are expectations of price growth that are self-fulfilling – that the expectations of growth lead to increased (and excessive) activity in the market, which drives the price growth
  2. Prices diverge significantly from what should be expected based on economic fundamentals

On the first condition, the author’s statistical research into Canadian housing markets suggests that growth of house prices has very little influence on market activity and, therefore, there is no evidence of a “speculative mindset”. There is evidence of a moderate effect in British Columbia, but even in BC the effect is nowhere near as strong as occurred in the US during its bubble period.

On the second condition, the critical economic fundamental is that very low interest rates have created “affordability space” in which house prices could rise. The amounts of actual increase in local markets have varied, depending on local conditions. The key finding here is that, in the 11 major market areas that are included in the Teranet/National Bank House Price Index, none have fully consumed the affordability space that has resulted from low interest rates. As such, we can conclude that the rapid rises of housing prices are consistent with economic fundamentals.

Another way to interpret the data (which is hopefully clearly evident in the charts shown in this section) is that housing affordability is currently very favourable almost everywhere in Canada. This is resulting in strong housing activity and supporting the broader economy. This support is increasingly valuable, given that investment in energy projects is no longer a driver of growth.

This report concludes that housing bubbles do not exist in Canada.

These findings explain why the countless predictions of doom have not been proven correct. That said, the economic fundamentals can change. In particular, a non-trivial and sustained rise in mortgage interest rates (or a sharp economic downturn) could put current prices offside and lead to price reductions.

There is risk in the policy arena. Changes in mortgage lender or insurer policies that reduce access to mortgages would result in a significant change in fundamental conditions, leading to an unnecessary drop in housing demand and housing prices, causing consequent economic damage.

Assessment of risks in the housing and mortgage markets should give considerable attention to the outlooks for interest rates and the employment situation. Someone who holds strong expectations about adverse changes for the fundamentals could see very substantial risks. On the other hand, someone who does not expect adverse changes for the fundamentals should see limited risks in the housing and mortgage markets.

 

This article was taken from the report Looking for balance in the Canadian Housing and Mortgage Markets  published by Mortgage Professionals Canada in June of 2016, written by Chief economist Will Dunning. 

DIANE BUCHANAN
 Mortgage Broker

LET'S TALK

Home Reno Dreams? Let’s Talk Mortgage Financing

By Diane Buchanan • June 3, 2026
How to Use Your Mortgage to Finance Home Renovations Home renovations can be exciting—but they can also be expensive. Whether you're upgrading your kitchen, finishing the basement, or tackling a much-needed repair, the cost of materials and labour adds up quickly. If you don’t have all the cash on hand, don’t worry. There are smart ways to use mortgage financing to fund your renovation plans without derailing your financial stability. Here are three mortgage-related strategies that can help: 1. Refinancing Your Mortgage If you're already a homeowner, one of the most straightforward ways to access funds for renovations is through a mortgage refinance. This involves breaking your current mortgage and replacing it with a new one that includes the amount you need for your renovations. Key benefits: You can access up to 80% of your home’s appraised value , assuming you qualify. It may be possible to lower your interest rate or reduce your monthly payments. Timing tip: If your mortgage is up for renewal soon, refinancing at that time can help you avoid prepayment penalties. Even mid-term refinancing could make financial sense, depending on your existing rate and your renovation goals. 2. Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) If you have significant equity in your home, a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) can offer flexible funding for renovations. A HELOC is a revolving credit line secured against your home, typically at a lower interest rate than unsecured borrowing. Why consider a HELOC? You only pay interest on the amount you use. You can access funds as needed, which is ideal for staged or ongoing renovations. You maintain the terms of your existing mortgage if you don’t want to refinance. Unlike a traditional loan, a HELOC allows you to borrow, repay, and borrow again—similar to how a credit card works, but with much lower rates. 3. Purchase Plus Improvements Mortgage If you're in the market for a new home and find a property that needs some work, a "Purchase Plus Improvements" mortgage could be a great option. This allows you to include renovation costs in your initial mortgage. How it works: The renovation funds are advanced based on a quote and are held in trust until the work is complete. The renovations must add value to the property and meet lender requirements. This type of mortgage lets you start with a home that might be more affordable upfront and customize it to your taste—all while building equity from day one. Final Thoughts Your home is likely your biggest investment, and upgrading it wisely can enhance both your comfort and its value. Mortgage financing can be a powerful tool to fund renovations without tapping into high-interest debt. The right solution depends on your unique financial situation, goals, and timing. Let’s chat about your options, run the numbers, and create a plan that works for you. 📞 Ready to renovate? Connect anytime to get started!

Buying a Vacation Property or Rental? Here’s What Lenders Look For

By Diane Buchanan • May 27, 2026
Owning a vacation home or an investment rental property is a dream for many Canadians. Whether it’s a cottage on the lake for family getaways or a rental unit to generate extra income, real estate can be both a lifestyle choice and a smart financial move. But before you dive in, it’s important to know what lenders look for when financing these types of properties. 1. Down Payment Requirements The biggest difference between buying a primary residence and a vacation or rental property is the down payment. Vacation property (owner-occupied, seasonal, or secondary home): Typically requires at least 5–10% down, depending on the lender and whether the property is winterized and accessible year-round. Rental property: Usually requires a minimum of 20% down. This is because rental income can fluctuate, and lenders want extra security before approving financing. 2. Property Type & Location Not all properties qualify for traditional mortgage financing. Lenders consider: Accessibility : Is the property accessible year-round (roads maintained, utilities available)? Condition : Seasonal or non-winterized cottages may not meet standard lending criteria. Zoning & Use : If it’s a rental, lenders want to ensure it complies with municipal bylaws and zoning regulations. Properties that fall outside these norms may require financing through alternative lenders, often with higher rates but more flexibility. 3. Rental Income Considerations If you’re buying a property with the intent to rent it out, lenders may factor the rental income into your mortgage application. Long-term rentals : Lenders typically accept 50–80% of the expected rental income when calculating your debt-service ratios. Short-term rentals (Airbnb, VRBO, etc.) : Many traditional lenders are cautious about using projected income from short-term rentals. Alternative lenders may be more flexible, depending on the property’s location and your financial profile. 4. Debt-Service Ratios Lenders use your Gross Debt Service (GDS) and Total Debt Service (TDS) ratios to determine if you can handle the mortgage payments alongside your other obligations. With investment or vacation properties, lenders may apply stricter guidelines, especially if your primary residence already carries a large mortgage. 5. Credit & Financial Stability Your credit score, employment history, and overall financial health still matter. Since vacation and rental properties are considered higher risk, lenders want reassurance that you can handle the additional debt—even if rental income fluctuates or the property sits vacant. 6. Insurance Requirements Rental properties often require specialized landlord insurance, and vacation homes may need coverage tailored to seasonal or secondary use. Lenders will want proof of adequate insurance before releasing mortgage funds. The Bottom Line Buying a vacation property or rental can be exciting, but financing these purchases comes with extra rules and considerations. From higher down payments to stricter property requirements, lenders want to be confident that you can handle the responsibility. If you’re considering a second property, the best step is to work with a mortgage professional who can compare lender requirements, outline your options, and find the financing that works best for you. Thinking about making your dream of a vacation or rental property a reality? Connect with us today.